2016 bellwether counties30 Mar 2016 bellwether counties

(The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. Want to dive deeper? Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. Suggest an improvement, report an issue, In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. It's the wrong question. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). (subject to censorship). "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. Watch Hampton City. But both are worth watching. Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? 25 battleground counties to watch - POLITICO Ryan Matsumoto is a contributing analyst for Inside Elections. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. (Sorry, not sorry.) North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. Putting names to archive photos, The children left behind in Cuba's mass exodus, In photos: India's disappearing single-screen cinemas. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. . Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. 12. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. The divisions were everywhere. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. Website Updates Paused Their emotions and decision making process are real. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . Dont simply gloss over this. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. Hillary Clinton (578) Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. Bellwether Counties Historical Performance 1984 to 2020 Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. 8. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Bellwether - Wikipedia She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. These bellwether counties mirror close NC race for president We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. Outstanding. If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. So, even though they got it wrong in 2020, it is still worth figuring out how much they got it wrong by. 3. These key counties are telling the story of America's shifting If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. Just how big is it? Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. (Go to the bottom of the page. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? our Gitlab account where you can Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. What are your thoughts on this article? With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. Will That Last?]. The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? ET. The highest percentage being 66.1%. But it's also not unprecedented. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. Still, the state's worth watching. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). List of election bellwether counties in the United States Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 105,097Republicans: 87,763Democrats: 77,383. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. That's 14 in a row. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania | OZY Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. Nobody forgot about politics.". "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. Bellwether counties are mostly a matter of chance and are now - USAPP It also backed Gov. Yes, another Hillsborough! In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. Trump won 18 of the 19. It did go for John Kerry in 2004, though, when Bush won the state, so let's see if Monroe retains its bellwether status beyond two elections or if it was just a cheeseburger in paradise. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. a county which has voted Republican in 2004, but swung to the Democrat party in 2008 and then back to the Republican party in 2016. There are 391 such counties. Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington.

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